5/1/25 Roundup: Bitcoin Is Severely Mispriced

Bitcoin Is Severely Mispriced

At ~$96,000, bitcoin remains one of the most profoundly mispriced assets in the world. Not because its price hasn’t appreciated—it has. Not because it’s been ignored—it hasn’t. But because despite years of development, adoption, and education, it is still not understood.

And on a risk-adjusted basis, bitcoin has never been cheaper.

Let’s take stock of where we stand.

The U.S. government has established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, a historic signal of legitimacy and long-term adoption. At the state level, several legislatures are advancing their own reserve bills, providing further public-sector validation.

Meanwhile, key figures in the Trump cabinet and family—many of whom oversee monetary and regulatory policy—have emerged as vocal bitcoin supporters, signaling their intent to lean heavily into sound money principles.

Institutional capital is only beginning to arrive. Only a handful companies in the S&P500 currently hold bitcoin on their balance sheets, and most wirehouses and wealth platforms still prohibit or restrict access to spot bitcoin ETFs.

Just look at the table below from Tephra Digital. Over $31 trillion in capital across top U.S. wealth platforms is still either outright prohibited or restricted from allocating to bitcoin ETFs. That wall of capital has yet to move.

At the same time, U.S. banks are preparing to custody and lend against bitcoin. BlackRock, Cantor Fitzgerald, Tether, and MicroStrategy are not waiting around—they're accumulating aggressively. And yet, the average millionaire still owns zero bitcoin, suggesting enormous untapped demand as perceptions shift and access improves.

Monetary conditions are turning favorable once again. The VIX has recently surged to levels not seen since the early pandemic or the 2008 financial crisis. The Fed, facing rising volatility and growing fiscal fragility, is increasingly likely to resume balance sheet expansion.

Global liquidity is also breaking out, echoing the macro conditions that preceded every major bitcoin bull run in the past decade. In this context, bitcoin’s hard capped supply and credible neutrality position it as a compelling hedge—especially as faith in the traditional 60/40 portfolio continues to erode.

Finally, bitcoin is still just a ~$2 trillion asset—roughly one-tenth the size of gold—despite offering superior monetary properties: absolute scarcity, digital portability, verifiable auditability, and resistance to seizure.

As more investors and institutions recognize these advantages, bitcoin stands positioned not just to compete with gold, but to absorb capital from the broader ~$900 trillion global asset base—equities, bonds, real estate, currencies, and collectibles—where risk is increasingly being repriced.

Meanwhile, a growing minority is waking up.

Every day, a new person—a financial advisor, a corporate treasurer, a family office head, a governor, a retiree—has the Overton window shift just enough to allow them to open their mind and run the mental model. And more often than not, they conclude that owning some bitcoin is simply better than having none.

We may soon be entering the "suddenly" phase.

As Hemingway once wrote of bankruptcy, adoption often happens gradually, then suddenly. And when that moment hits for bitcoin—when a critical mass of individuals, institutions, sovereigns, and allocators can and do allocate—the repricing will be swift.

It’s easy to forget how different the world looked ~24 months ago. FTX had just collapsed. Regulators were actively choking off bitcoin access to banks. The ETFs were a pipe dream. The idea that the U.S. government would hold bitcoin on its balance sheet—let alone advocate its role as a strategic asset—was unimaginable.

And yet, here we are.

The runway ahead is one of the most constructive bitcoin setups anyone could have envisioned. And unlike 2021, there is no mania. There is no froth. There is only a quiet, compounding realization that bitcoin is the best form of money humans have ever had—and also the most under-owned asset on the planet.

The question now is not whether bitcoin adoption will continue, but at what pace.

Chart of the Week

"Early days..." — Sam Callahan on X

Quote of the Week

"I'm not a deep enough student of the institutional ecosystems in the other coins right now, but in terms of the conversations that we've had with institutional investors, they are really largely focused on bitcoin right now, particularly in this 5environment."

— Samara Cohen, BlackRock's CIO of ETF and Index Investments

Podcasts of the Week

Risk-Off: Why Bitcoin Is a Strategic Asset for Serious Capital

In this episode of The Last Trade, hosts Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Cam Stromme are joined by two Onramp clients, Josh MacNeel & Greg Hoffmeister, to discuss bitcoin’s true ‘risk-off’ nature, SoftBank & corporate treasury adoption, the importance of financial literacy, navigating bitcoin ownership & custody, finding Onramp & peace of mind.

Speculative Attack: Pierre Rochard on Bitcoin's Endgame

In this episode of Final Settlement, we're joined by Pierre Rochard to discuss the origins of speculative currency attacks, his launch of The Bitcoin Bond Company, corporate treasury adoption, bitcoin hashrate growth, and catalyzing bitcoin education.

The Bitcoin Floodgates Are Open: Institutions, Governments & the Next Wave

In this episode of Final Settlement, hosts Michael Tanguma, Liam Nelson, & Brian Cubellis discuss the latest deals and news items of the week across bitcoin, technology, and venture capital.

Closing Note

Onramp provides bitcoin financial services built on multi-institution custody. To learn more about our products for individuals and institutions, schedule a consultation to chat with us about your situation and needs.

Until next week,

Brian Cubellis