Last week’s Roundup described bitcoin as a coiled spring.

It was trading around $112,000 that Thursday morning. Hours later, the move began—culminating in a weekend high above $123,000. We’re now in price discovery mode, with structural bid-side support strengthening and sell pressure fading.

What’s driving the breakout? Beyond the obvious—more buyers than sellers—there are clear structural forces behind this move.

Institutional Bid Strengthens

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded their second largest single-day inflows to date last week, a clear signal that traditional capital allocators are getting into position. The vast majority of institutional flows remain on the sidelines, gated by compliance timelines, wirehouse access, and product approvals. But the pipes are being laid—and the capital is queuing.

Corporate Treasuries Abound

The corporate treasury bid continues to build. Nearly every day brings a new announcement. Earlier this week, Blockstream and Cantor Fitzgerald disclosed plans for a $4 billion SPAC to fund an initial acquisition of 30,000 BTC. This wave remains in the early innings. Capital has been raised, intentions declared—but the real buying hasn’t started.

Regulatory Clarity Arrives

The GENIUS Act—the stablecoin legislation moving through Congress—may be signed into law as soon as this week. Paired with ongoing progress in market structure legislation, the direction is clear: the U.S. is establishing rules of the road. While not necessarily specific to bitcoin, this regulatory clarity has been the missing piece for many fiduciaries and institutions. Once resolved, the air cover is in place.

Political Dynamics Turn Bitcoin-Positive

Reports continue to circulate that the Trump administration could remove Jerome Powell or pressure the Fed to lower rates. Regardless of your political leanings, the implication is straightforward: a tilt toward looser policy, continued fiscal dominance, and a more favorable macro environment for hard assets—particularly those outside the financial system.

Sovereign Signals Multiply

Texas is preparing a $10 million BTC purchase through its state depository, set to begin as early as September. At the federal level, executive accumulation is being actively explored. Custody standards like MIC—formally embraced in BPI’s Strategic Reserve Toolkit—are paving the way for fault-tolerant sovereign storage.

This is no longer theoretical. Strategic state-level adoption is underway, and the sovereign reflexive loop is taking shape.

Higher prices attract more attention, which drives capital flows, which increase legitimacy, which strengthens policy support—and so the cycle reinforces itself. Institutions now face not just FOMO, but the risk of being structurally underweight.

The same is becoming true for nation-states.

A Final Perspective

Zoom out. Bitcoin is still just over 0.2% of global asset value. Despite the recent surge, most people still assume they’ve missed it.

But even those who bought the 2021 peak (~$69K) and held through the drawdown are now up over ~70% cumulatively and ~15.7% annualized (outpacing S&P 500 returns of 34% and 9.9%, respectively).

The lesson? Timing matters less than perspective. Bitcoin rewards those who stay focused on the long arc of monetization, not short-term volatility.

We’re early. The spring is uncoiling—and demand is just getting started.

Chart of the Week

"The Cornell Bitcoin Club conducted a survey which revealed 90% of people have heard of #Bitcoin. Only 13% know it has a 21 million supply cap."

— TFTC on X

Quote of the Week

"Do you realize a whale just dumped almost as much Bitcoin as the German nation did last year and Bitcoin only dropped a few percent? Let that sink in.

Bitcoin is now one of the most deeply liquid markets on Earth, up there with gold and Treasuries."

— Vijay Boyapati on X

Podcasts of the Week

Liquidity Begets Liquidity: $123K Bitcoin and the Incoming Supply Shock

In this episode of Final Settlement, hosts Michael Tanguma, Liam Nelson, & Brian Cubellis discuss ETF flows & the silent retail bid; pubcos, leverage & custody risk; AI, sovereigns & the next wave; altcoin churn vs. bitcoin dominance, & more!

The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Playbook: Inside BPI’s Toolkit for Sovereign Adoption

In this special episode of The Last Trade, hosts Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis, are joined by Zack Shapiro and Zack Cohen of the Bitcoin Policy Institute to unpack their newly released State-Level SBR Toolkit, a modular framework for states to hold bitcoin securely and responsibly.

Closing Note

Onramp provides bitcoin financial services built on multi-institution custody. To learn more about our products for individuals and institutions, schedule a consultation to chat with us about your situation and needs.

Until next week,

Brian Cubellis